Page 57 - ICE BUSINESS TIMES January 2020
P. 57

Due to the falling stock        alive because there has been no
                                                                                                                                                                                  market index, small             resolution of the conflicting
                                                                                                                                                                                  investors are losing their      claims by the stakeholders and
                                                                                                                                                                                  investments and facing an       regulatory boards. GP is the
                                                                                                                                                                                  uncertain future? (General      single largest company in this
                                                                                                                                                                                  investors lost Tk 15,000        stock market, so the news had a
                                                                                                                                                                                  crore, due to falling index)    negative effect on the stock
                                                                                                                                                                                  What are the remedial           market. Additionally, the banking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  sector has been riddled with ever
                                                                                                                                                                                  policy initiatives that can     rising problems of
                                                                                                                                                                                  be taken to rekindle faith in   non-performing loans. According
                                                                                                                                                                                  the stock market and bring      to the latest count on September
                                                                                                                                                                                  back investors?                 2019, the amount of NPL was Tk
                                                                                                                                                                                  It is indeed very unfortunate that   114 lakh crores which both in
                                                                                                                                                                                  the stock market index has been   absolute terms and in total
                                                                                                                                                                                  falling for quite some time and in   proportions is the highest in
                                                                                                                                                                                  fact now it has sunk even lower,   recent history. So this huge
                                                                                                                                                                                  the DSC index lost 76 points and it   volume of NPL is causing loss of
                                                                                                                                                                                  is now 4,419 which is less than   confidence in the banking system.
                                                                                                                                                                                  half of the highest index that was   And the growth of deposits into
                                                                                                                                                                                  in December 2012 (9812). There   the banking system has been
                                                                                                                                                                                  are a number of reasons for this   falling. As a result, banking
                                                                                                                                                                                  eventuality. First,from time to   sector shares have gone down
                                                                                                                                                                                  time, it has been observed that   and it is still this sector as a                    Well for a country like Bangladesh   in accelerating GDP growth.
                                                                                                                                                                                  there was a lack of coordination   whole accounts for a substantial                   monetary policy is not very
                                                                                                                                                                                  and understanding among the     portion of the total stock market                     effective. Because a large part of   What can be done to ensure
                                                                                                                                                                                  various regulatory authorities.  capitalization.                                      the money supply comes from net   the effectiveness of
                                                                                                                                                                                  For example at some point,      In addition, the banking sector                       foreign assets, which is dependent   monetary policy in
 In recent years, while   magnitude of the depreciation   pressure from the workforce to                                                                                          Bangladesh Bank had put a limit   problems create another situation                   on exports and remittance where   containing inflation?
 Bangladesh's major   is probably somewhat lower   raise their salary level leading                                                                                               on the investment by the banks in   where some of the investors                       Bangladesh Bank has very little
 competitors in the   compared to other countries.   to an increase in the cost of                                                                                                the stock market.Then they also   borrow money from the banks                         control over. Borrowing by the   I have found that money supply
 global market, such as   So, the question is, whether a   production.                                                                                                            imposed the requirement that    and invest in the stock market.                       government is also part of money   and inflation are not very much
 China, Vietnam, India,   devaluation will increase our   Thirdly, if the exchange rate is                                                                                        subsidiaries of the of the banks,   But because of slowing down of                    supply, where the central bank has   directly related in Bangladesh.The
 and Sri Lanka, have   exports?  deprecated, foreign buyers may                                                                                                                   which may be a mutual fund or   deposits, the banks are not in a                      no control over. And the same   primary factor which is
 experienced significant   Now, the basic argument   try to negotiate for a lower price                                                                                           non bank financial institutions,   position to extend credit to the                   thing applies also to various other   responsible for inflation in
 depreciation of their   underlying exchange rate   in dollar terms. The purpose of                                                               that the foreign buyers are     their investment would also be   private sector and the growth of                     government bodies that are      Bangladesh is the exchange rate. If
 currencies against the   devaluation is that it will lead   devaluation is to ensure                                                             constantly pressing for reduction   counted as a part of investment by   credit to the private sector has             autonomous and statutory        the exchange rate de-values,
 US dollar, Bangladeshi   to more revenue for   producers get more money for                                                                      of prices and in fact the unit prices   the bank. Thirdly, it was also   come down now to about 10%                   corporations. So a large part of the   inflation increases.
 taka remained quite   Bangladeshi producers.   the same dollar value. However,                                                                   have gone down in recent time.So   postulated that investment by the   which is way below the monetary                money supply is outside the     The second issue is that, as we are   productive investment then the
 stable. How important   Therefore, they will increase   often the exporter complains                                                             if they succeed in negotiating a   commercial banks in the unlisted   policy target of 16% plus. These                control of the central bank.    importing raw materials and      domestic supply of various goods
 is it to re-think our   their supply in the                                                                                                      lower dollar price, that means the   company's shares would also be   factors coupled with the GP crisis              There isn't really a strong link   capital goods. Prices in the   and services will increase and that
 exchange rate policy to   international market and they                                                                                          part of the benefit of devaluation   treated as a part of the overall   started a panic selling in the                between money supply and        international market affects our   will have a positive effect.
 stay competitive in   will move along the supply                                                                                                 will be transferred to the foreign   investment.Now these things had   market. So these are the main                  interest rate. And that's partly   inflation and we cannot free   Unfortunately in many cases, the
 global trade?  curve. But there are a number                                                                                                     buyers.                         a negative effect on this stock   reasons behind the distress of the                  because our banks especially the   ourselves from that problem   credit that flows is not used for
 The case in point is   of issues that might arise                                                                                                So there are concerns but that does   market and later on Bangladesh   stock market.                                  private banks do not operate on   because it would be unthinkable to   productive purposes, some of it
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        be able to substitute those
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         goes into trade. I have seen that
 Bangladesh taka remained   from such a move. First of all,                                                                                       not mean that we should not give   Bank retracted the decisions, so                                                   the basis of competitive principles   imported inputs with domestic
 stable while the exchange   unlike countries such as                                                                                             some thought to further the     the problems has been solved to   The standard transmission                           they set the interest rates both for   production in the near future.  the agricultural loan is given to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         someone who uses to buy a
 rates of a number of   China or India, our exports                                                                                               generative evaluation, but I think   some extent. However, incidents   channel of monetary policy                     lending and deposit collusively   So, I don't see any particular way
 neighboring countries   are heavily dependent on                                                                                                 it should be the implications that I   like this create a lack of confidence   is that an increase in the             and as a result even there have   in which monetary policy can be   motorcycle, or to construct a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         house. So, these are not
 particularly competitors of   imported inputs. So if there is                                                                                    have just mentioned should be   in the overall market scenario.  money supply would cause                             been many years and money       made more effective in containing
 Bangladesh in respect of   a devaluation, the cost of   Dr. Mirza Azizul Islam, Professor, BRAC Business School, BRAC University                 carefully analyzed and then on   Concurrently, there have been   a reduction in interest rate;                        supply has increased but the    inflation. However, we may try to   reproductive investments.In some
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         cases, there are complaints and
 export specifically garment   production will also increase                                                                                      that basis they should take a   other regulatory issues. For    this would lead to a rise in                          interest rate has actually gone up.   increase domestic supply of goods
 exports, have depreciated.Well   because the imported inputs.                                                                                    decision. So, just because there is   example at one point, Titas gas   investment and thereby                        Consequently, monetary policy in   and services through use of   that the money is actually
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         eventually sort of smuggled out of
 firstly, Bangladesh taka has   Another problem that may                                                                                          some demand from some quarters,   decided to reduce the wheeling   higher aggregate demand                            general is not effective in     monetary policy. The Bangladesh
 also depreciated as current   arise is that, an exchange rate                                                                                    the central bank should not     charges of gas that had an effect   and higher GDP. The                               Bangladesh and is not an effective   Bank and also the commercial   the country. So the objective
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         should be to make use of
 rate is about taka 84.9. And   depreciation might increase                                                                                       execute such a measure without   on the stock market because    experience in Bangladesh                              tool to control inflation. So given   banks themselves ensure that the
 two years back, it was   domestic inflation. Now when                                                                                            making a thorough examination of   substantial shares in the stock   shows that this link does                        all those points that I mentioned. I   credit that is flowing to the private   monetary policy to increase supply
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         of output.So that if the supply
 somewhere around 80 per   the domestic inflation                                                                                                 the potential consequences of   market.Then the problem with    not work effectively, what                            don't think monetary policy in   sector is actually used. For
 dollar. But of course the   increases there will be                                                                                              devaluation.                    Grameenphone which still remains   is the reason behind that?                         Bangladesh can be very effective                                 increases then price level is likely
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         to come down.
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