Page 58 - ICE BUSINESS TIMES January 2020
P. 58

The purpose of       Due to the falling stock        alive because there has been no
                      devaluation is to ensure       market index, small             resolution of the conflicting
                           producers get more        investors are losing their      claims by the stakeholders and
                   money for the same dollar         investments and facing an       regulatory boards. GP is the
                     value. However, often the       uncertain future? (General      single largest company in this
                                                                                     stock market, so the news had a
                     exporter complains that         investors lost Tk 15,000        negative effect on the stock
                        the foreign buyers are       crore, due to falling index)    market. Additionally, the banking
                      constantly pressing for        What are the remedial           sector has been riddled with ever
                    reduction of prices and in       policy initiatives that can     rising problems of
                                                     be taken to rekindle faith in
                     fact the unit prices have       the stock market and bring      non-performing loans. According
                          gone down in decent        back investors?                 to the latest count on September
                    time.So if they succeed in       It is indeed very unfortunate that   2019, the amount of NPL was Tk
                    negotiating a lower dollar       the stock market index has been   114 lakh crores which both in
                                                                                     absolute terms and in total
                   price, that means the part        falling for quite some time and in   proportions is the highest in
                              of the benefit of       fact now it has sunk even lower,   recent history. So this huge
                           devaluation will be       the DSC index lost 76 points and it   volume of NPL is causing loss of
                    transferred to the foreign       is now 4,419 which is less than   confidence in the banking system.
                                        buyers.      half of the highest index that was   And the growth of deposits into
                                                     in December 2012 (9812). There   the banking system has been
                                                     are a number of reasons for this   falling. As a result, banking
                                                     eventuality. First,from time to   sector shares have gone down
                                                     time, it has been observed that   and it is still this sector as a                    Well for a country like Bangladesh   in accelerating GDP growth.
                                                     there was a lack of coordination   whole accounts for a substantial                   monetary policy is not very
                                                     and understanding among the     portion of the total stock market                     effective. Because a large part of   What can be done to ensure
                                                     various regulatory authorities.  capitalization.                                      the money supply comes from net   the effectiveness of
                                                     For example at some point,      In addition, the banking sector                       foreign assets, which is dependent   monetary policy in
 In recent years, while   magnitude of the depreciation   pressure from the workforce to   Bangladesh Bank had put a limit   problems create another situation   on exports and remittance where   containing inflation?
 Bangladesh's major   is probably somewhat lower   raise their salary level leading   on the investment by the banks in   where some of the investors   Bangladesh Bank has very little
 competitors in the   compared to other countries.   to an increase in the cost of   the stock market.Then they also   borrow money from the banks   control over. Borrowing by the   I have found that money supply
 global market, such as   So, the question is, whether a   production.  imposed the requirement that   and invest in the stock market.     government is also part of money   and inflation are not very much
 China, Vietnam, India,   devaluation will increase our   Thirdly, if the exchange rate is   subsidiaries of the of the banks,   But because of slowing down of   supply, where the central bank has   directly related in Bangladesh.The
 and Sri Lanka, have   exports?  deprecated, foreign buyers may   which may be a mutual fund or   deposits, the banks are not in a         no control over. And the same   primary factor which is
 experienced significant   Now, the basic argument   try to negotiate for a lower price   non bank financial institutions,   position to extend credit to the   thing applies also to various other   responsible for inflation in
 depreciation of their   underlying exchange rate   in dollar terms. The purpose of   that the foreign buyers are   their investment would also be   private sector and the growth of   government bodies that are   Bangladesh is the exchange rate. If
 currencies against the   devaluation is that it will lead   devaluation is to ensure   constantly pressing for reduction   counted as a part of investment by   credit to the private sector has   autonomous and statutory   the exchange rate de-values,
 US dollar, Bangladeshi   to more revenue for   producers get more money for   of prices and in fact the unit prices   the bank. Thirdly, it was also   come down now to about 10%   corporations. So a large part of the   inflation increases.
 taka remained quite   Bangladeshi producers.   the same dollar value. However,   have gone down in recent time.So   postulated that investment by the   which is way below the monetary   money supply is outside the   The second issue is that, as we are   productive investment then the
 stable. How important   Therefore, they will increase   often the exporter complains   if they succeed in negotiating a   commercial banks in the unlisted   policy target of 16% plus. These   control of the central bank.    importing raw materials and   domestic supply of various goods
 is it to re-think our   their supply in the   lower dollar price, that means the   company's shares would also be   factors coupled with the GP crisis   There isn't really a strong link   capital goods. Prices in the   and services will increase and that
 exchange rate policy to   international market and they   part of the benefit of devaluation   treated as a part of the overall   started a panic selling in the   between money supply and   international market affects our   will have a positive effect.
 stay competitive in   will move along the supply   will be transferred to the foreign   investment.Now these things had   market. So these are the main   interest rate. And that's partly   inflation and we cannot free   Unfortunately in many cases, the
 global trade?  curve. But there are a number   buyers.  a negative effect on this stock   reasons behind the distress of the              because our banks especially the   ourselves from that problem   credit that flows is not used for
 The case in point is   of issues that might arise   So there are concerns but that does   market and later on Bangladesh   stock market.   private banks do not operate on   because it would be unthinkable to   productive purposes, some of it
                                                                                                                                                                           be able to substitute those
                                                                                                                                                                                                           goes into trade. I have seen that
 Bangladesh taka remained   from such a move. First of all,   not mean that we should not give   Bank retracted the decisions, so          the basis of competitive principles   imported inputs with domestic
 stable while the exchange   unlike countries such as   some thought to further the   the problems has been solved to   The standard transmission   they set the interest rates both for   production in the near future.  the agricultural loan is given to
                                                                                                                                                                                                           someone who uses to buy a
 rates of a number of   China or India, our exports   generative evaluation, but I think   some extent. However, incidents   channel of monetary policy   lending and deposit collusively   So, I don't see any particular way
 neighboring countries   are heavily dependent on   it should be the implications that I   like this create a lack of confidence   is that an increase in the   and as a result even there have   in which monetary policy can be   motorcycle, or to construct a
                                                                                                                                                                                                           house. So, these are not
 particularly competitors of   imported inputs. So if there is   have just mentioned should be   in the overall market scenario.  money supply would cause   been many years and money   made more effective in containing
 Bangladesh in respect of   a devaluation, the cost of   carefully analyzed and then on   Concurrently, there have been   a reduction in interest rate;   supply has increased but the   inflation. However, we may try to   reproductive investments.In some
                                                                                                                                                                                                           cases, there are complaints and
 export specifically garment   production will also increase   that basis they should take a   other regulatory issues. For   this would lead to a rise in   interest rate has actually gone up.   increase domestic supply of goods
 exports, have depreciated.Well   because the imported inputs.  decision. So, just because there is   example at one point, Titas gas   investment and thereby   Consequently, monetary policy in   and services through use of   that the money is actually
                                                                                                                                                                                                           eventually sort of smuggled out of
 firstly, Bangladesh taka has   Another problem that may   some demand from some quarters,   decided to reduce the wheeling   higher aggregate demand   general is not effective in   monetary policy. The Bangladesh
 also depreciated as current   arise is that, an exchange rate   the central bank should not   charges of gas that had an effect   and higher GDP. The   Bangladesh and is not an effective   Bank and also the commercial   the country. So the objective
                                                                                                                                                                                                           should be to make use of
 rate is about taka 84.9. And   depreciation might increase   execute such a measure without   on the stock market because   experience in Bangladesh   tool to control inflation. So given   banks themselves ensure that the
 two years back, it was   domestic inflation. Now when   making a thorough examination of   substantial shares in the stock   shows that this link does   all those points that I mentioned. I   credit that is flowing to the private   monetary policy to increase supply
                                                                                                                                                                                                           of output.So that if the supply
 somewhere around 80 per   the domestic inflation   the potential consequences of   market.Then the problem with   not work effectively, what   don't think monetary policy in   sector is actually used. For
 dollar. But of course the   increases there will be   devaluation.   Grameenphone which still remains   is the reason behind that?        Bangladesh can be very effective                                increases then price level is likely
                                                                                                                                                                                                           to come down.
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