Page 52 - ICE BUSINESS TIMES January 2020

If existing employers are not like the onion price hike, that kind medium scale. Then we have who are maybe mothers. Since we for Bangladesh is low. Debt social protection payments, beyond industry standards, then for example . If they are able to policies are prudent. The FY20
expanding their operations or of a bubble, then it is a different some of the service sector, e.g. don’t have proper daycare distress means you are not able to transfer payments – the recurring they raise their fees. There is a supply the Electronic Fiscal budget maintains an overall
new firms are not coming into story. So far so good. banking, telecommunication. facilities, child rearing becomes a service your debt. That becomes a budget has risen. That is why the deficit in confidenceThe elephant Device, then they can monitor the deficit target of 5 percent of GDP.
business then where will the The one concern on the inflation Even wholesale and retail trade, full time responsibility. major worry if governments start deficit is rising now. Our deficit in the room are the NPLs, and if collection better so the revenue Domestic financing is projected to
effort can start showing some
defaulting then the whole financial
target has always been 5% of GDP.
we don’t address this now then
jobs come from? It’s not like front from the demand side is that apart from the departmental We don’t have employment growth market will collapse. We don’t have Typically what happens is you the weakness in the banking sector results in the second half of the reach 2.7 percent of GDP with the
in the formal sector. The main
balance from foreign sources.
stores and supermarkets, is
investment is not happening at public borrowing is growing very largely an informal sector, where problem is private investment, it is that problem yet. But recently, the have shortfalls in both revenue will continue. Private credit growth year. If they prioritize on the Given a low public debt-to-GDP
rapidly and if that leads to
all, but investment proportion monetary growth beyond the some of them aren’t even almost stagnant as a percentage of revenue mobilization has been relative to the budget and also is at a historic low at around 10% expenditure side, this booming ratio and access to concessional
of GDP is not moving. We have monetary policy target, then there registered. In the formal sector, the GDP. If existing employers are poor, fiscal deficit have gone up shortfall in expenditure relative to with most of it going to trade public borrowing would be external finance, this does not
like 22-23% private investment could be some demand pull factors the employment picture does not not expanding their operations or and government borrowing from the budget. But the shortfall in financing. That’s where the macro contained. This is the main source increase the risk of debt distress.
rate, and for a country like coming in. There is also a demand look that good. The biggest new firms are not coming into domestic sources have also been expenditures used to exceed the stability concerns are in banking. of worry on the macro outlook.
Bangladesh if you want a pull from the remittances which employer is garments, in recent business then where will the jobs increasing. This is a concern from revenue shortfall. This is getting What are the key external What are the key short and
sustained 7% growth rate, then are doing really well, which is the news from BGMEA, 200-250 come from? It’s not like a financial point of view, because reversed now. The revenue What is your assessment of and domestic risks we need medium-term policy
the outlook?
challenges?
investment is not happening at all,
the government is taking money
shortfall will go up, and the
it has to be around 28-30% of only indicator that is strongly factories have been closed down but investment proportion of GDP away from the savers and there expenditure shortfall will shrink, Global outlook has improved to be wary of? And how do
laying off 20,000-30,000 workers.
GDP. It’s a rule of thumb positive, while the remaining are The 2017 labor force survey is not moving. We have like isn’t much left for the private so that buffer is disappearing. significantly in the last one month. we overcome them? The short term policy challenge is
strongly negative.
firstly will they be able to let go of
calculation. shows an absolute decline. 22-23% private investment rate, sector to borrow. This puts There is no crisis, but there are Two things have happened. One is Downside risks are primarily the exchange rate? Second,
What’s your take on the Exports have been doing poorly and for a country like Bangladesh pressure on the interest rates some red flags we need to pay the uncertainty relating to Brexit. domestic. High NPLs and stock serious actions need to be taken in
unemployment rate? How this fiscal year; there are some if you want a sustained 7% growth which could become a problem. attention to both on the revenue We still don’t know whether it’ll be market volatility pose financial the banking sector regarding the
do we improve the serious concerns about rate, then it has to be around Revenue performance has been side and the expenditure side. We a No-Deal Brexit, or whether they stability and credit intermediation NPLs. Efforts to direct the banking consolidation in the b
numbers? joblessness in the formal sector 28-30% of GDP. It’s a rule of thumb two years we got rid of $9 billion, excess demand? We have to decide very poor and recurrent should prioritize and try to identify will work out an alternative risks. Liquidity pressures may be sector to provide loans at 9% sector? If banks were to merg
did okay, but later we have seen On the unemployment front, we employment, particularly for calculation. If you look at the so if there is any big shock to the whether we want exchange rate expenditures have boomed recently areas of wasteful expenditures. arrangement. Secondly, the trade exacerbated by additional rates don’t work. You cannot force there an adequate legal
some reversal both in don’t have recent numbers. The females since garments labor countries that have done really economy like the one we are stability or reserve stability. If you because of the wage hike, rising The monetary program that is war between the United States and government borrowing from people to do business that they framework that will enable it? A
food-inflation and non-food last survey was done was in 2017. force is largely comprised of well on generating jobs in having now with exports being want exchange rate stability then interest payment burden and the announced every year is fairly China has not gone away, but there domestic banks. A further find unprofitable. Then we said the Financial Institution Divisi
inflation. It now stands at 6.05%. The other numbers that you see women workers. A part of the numbers and quality, you realize down 7.6% in the first five months, you have to make sure you have subsidy budget which has prudent. Monetary growth is has been a ceasefire. The deterioration in the financial forget about 6%, you can charge and BB, capable of overseeing
One reason is the infamous onion that comes from General reason for this labor shedding is that our problem is not just that trade deficit has expanded, the adequate reserves all the time so expanded where we have added almost in the single digit last fiscal escalation of tariff war was the health of state-owned banks could whatever deposit rate you want, mergers and consolidation. W
price hike, although onion in the Economics Division are projections automation, moving onto more we don’t have enough employment current account deficit has you can intervene in the foreign new subsidies. Since the year. There we don’t see any source biggest worry and that has undermine the fiscal balance. but if you want to lend to the need to address long term
proportion of total expenditure is based on growth numbers. We 4IR technologies. The amount of opportunities, but the jobs declined as remittances have exchange market. Bangladesh procurement of LNG, the power of instability from monetary policy. stopped. Even though you won’t Reform reversals such as easing of productive sectors, you cannot structural reforms, and the
What is the state of the However, you don’t get to see inflations were creeping up. The not that big – it is 1.6% of typical work previously done by four available are not worth much. The boomed by 22%. That has been the Bank is still very adamant about sector has been selling it below the The issues are in financial see it in the numbers, the global loan classification standards, exceed 9%. This was the latest investment environment , the
economy in terms of such strong momentum in the rice price collapse story was the household expenditure . But the have not gone to enterprises and people is being handled by one income is not that great. You want savior. On the financial account, keeping the foreign exchange rate cost price. Rental power plants, regulation, that’s where our main outlook has improved, because ceilings on lending rates, reduced policy until they decided to go regulatory complex
done a labor force survey, because
growth? economy. BBS is the ‘only’ result of bumper crop causing rice price increase was so high, like unemployment is not something since new machineries are coming both employment growth and the foreign aid disbursement has stable and not devaluing the taka even if they don’t produce source of macro instability is. global economic prospects and autonomy of BB and the back to directed interest rates of unpredictability. These are t
We are the fastest growing source of national accounts prices to fall significantly. 400-500% so even though the that we regularly measure. For in. However, automation is not wage growth. Wage growth in slowed, but it is still good. We too much. Our official policy is anything, they are paying a Bottom line: external stability is world economic outlook were state-owned non-financial 6% on deposits and 9% on credit, long term policy challenges.
economy in the world depicted data. So, we cannot outright International commodity prices weight is low, but the growth is so unemployment, we need regular the only reason; there is also a Bangladesh has barely kept up have declining exports and that it is a floating exchange rate capacity charge which is 60% of comfortable, but export decline is a published before these things corporates, increases in except on credit cards. If you are looking at the econom
by the official estimate. The reject it, but we cannot are very stable, so inflation in high, that it has a visible impact. surveys, a kind of system we have competitiveness problem. The with inflation and the growth in depressed imports which means system and we will allow market their production capacity. Even if worry. Reserves are okay but happened. My expectation is that untargeted subsidies and ad hoc Implementing such a policy growth as the headline nu
problem with the official unquestionably accept it either. Bangladesh is largely determined There were other knock on effects not developed yet. We have unemployment rate among the nominal wages has been below the the economy is not doing well demand-supply to do the work. there is no output, they pay. This is Bangladesh Bank’s intervention in when you see the next round of changes in taxes and fees through demands a lot on the need to have sustained high
estimate is its inconsistency There may have been healthy by supply side factors, the cost of like other spice prices being anecdotal evidence. Now, most of educated youth is the highest inflation rate in some sectors such which is why people are not Bangladesh Bank should only the reason the Power Development the foreign exchange market is a international forecast, it will be nontransparent processes pose administrative machinery. Then growth to achieve our
with the other growth-related growth. 6+ is a very healthy imports, domestic production. increased, alongside rice prices our employment is in the informal among Bangladesh. There is also as fisheries and construction. In buying and investing so current intervene when exchange rates Board alone, the budget subsidy worry. We need to let go of the upgraded not downgraded like it additional risks. Loss of there is the problem of poor SDGs, and upper middle incom
indicators. In order to explain growth when we compare with Fiscal year wise, FY19, inflation have crept up a little bit. Then in sector – 85% plus of our labor a big category outside the labor the manufacturing sector, wage machinery imports are down. From become extremely volatile like 85 provision is about Tk 95 billion exchange rate. Fiscal debt is okay, was the last time. That’s good competitiveness from the real governance. If you have weak country stat
where this growth is coming other South Asian countries. the non-food, the house rents and force. The employment level in the force. They are the NEET, people growth has stayed ahead of the a balance point of view it is a today, 90 tomorrow and 80 the BPDB. Then you have export but revenue is slipping and news for us because we have a big exchange rate appreciation could institutions, and public officials aspirations that we have.
from, we have to break it up Exports and remittances were several other consumer prices informal sector does not really who are neither employed, nor inflation rates, so there have been positive, because it is reducing day after. There are certain subsidy, then we introduced the expenditure is getting out of presence in the E.U., U.S, Canada further hinder Bangladesh’s who are easily corruptible then achieve those we need investment
and look at the drivers of good, and our agriculture (clothing, footwear) went up. We change that much, what changes educated, nor in training, but 1%-2% real growth in wages. For a pressure for payments, but if we positive factors which give us a remittance subsidy, subsidy on control. If the financial sector and several other advanced limited integration in global these kind of directives are very and innovations, that’s the
growth - the official numbers on production was struck with the have the same target of 5.5% in is the hours worked. Open these are young people who are country like Bangladesh, you want economic growth to pick up sense of comfort and these are diesel, fertilizer and add to that the becomes unstable, people lose markets. The outlook for us will supply chains. Higher inflation difficult to implement. Some mechanics of it. For people to e
the expenditure side. But you good fortune of two bumper FY20, but now inflation is above unemployment rate in Bangladesh working age people. 9 out of 10 expect a lot more, but if you don’t and investment to be higher, then remittance, the reserve we already confidence in banks, so they start depend a lot on what is happening remains a risk in the context of serious actions need to be taken and exit business, the envir
see it is private consumption crops. Public investments in that. Depending on the boro is always very low. If you compare are women between the ages of have investments and the formal imports will rise creating pressure have and the amount of committed withdrawing their deposits, but we in the domestic economy, growing domestic demand and on the legal front to enforce the has to be friendly, which woul
and investment. Usually the some projects are visible, like production, I think it will still be it with the developed countries, it 25-40 who are educated and sector is not expanding then you on BOP. The main issue on the aid money in the pipeline. If we are not there yet. Financial particularly on the policy front. rising public expenditures. law against the defaulters. There mean structural reform. One, y
contribution of foreign trade is the Metrorail, Padma Bridge, possible to bring it back down to would be below the natural rate, capable, but not in the labor cannot have good job creation. external balance front is what do utilize them properly, then we will stability means the ability to Based on the indicators related to Managing risks will require are other problems, for example have to ensure macro stability.
negative as we have a deficit which may have supported the 5.5%. We still have six months left, which doesn’t really mean much. market. The number is around a we want to stabilize? We have so not face an external balance finance your production and trade. growth like tax revenue, export, prudent macroeconomic why do we have such a high NPL Second, regulations to start a
since imports are greater than growth. and the international commodity People can’t afford to not do staggering 4 million. When you How do we evaluate the far chosen the stability of the problem. Our external trade needs bank credit, import of machinery, I management. The monetary policy problem? One is our policy business, to operate a business or
exports. But last year imports price outlook is fairly stable. The anything in a country like are not finding jobs in the labor macroeconomic balance of exchange rate, so when we think financing; the foreign supplier will would be inclined to revise it announced in July 2019 seeks to encourage default and defaulters to close a business need to b
were depressed and exports Can you talk us through most important price for us is the Bangladesh. They may work in a market, then you get frustrated external policy? there is an excess demand for Can you shed some light on look at your LC. They don’t accept downwards, because these are all contain inflation while achieving are rewarded, but also there is a simplified. Third, your
recovered so there was a the state of inflation in oil prices. All our major imports tea stall, or as a rickshaw puller, it and stop looking for jobs. Once When we talk about external dollars in the foreign exchange fiscal and monetary any Bangladeshi LC anymore in very depressed state. There are growth objectives. BB maintained problem on the supply side as in infrastructure, particularly
turnaround, but that is not the country? like the diesel, furnace oil, doesn't mean they are working full that happens, you are not policies, bottom line we are doing market and if the Bangladesh policies? without a guarantee from HSBC, some concerns on the macro the repo and reverse repo rates at we have too many banks. Now trade logistics like roads and
enough to explain 8+ growth. On the inflation front, it was petroleum, fertilizers and many of time. Even if they are working full considered unemployed. The fine. The total amount of reserves Bank doesn’t do anything then the The other side of macroeconomics Standard Chartered or some stability outlook, it is slipping a 6.0 and 4.75 percent respectively. because there is a limited market need to function a lot be
Investment to GDP ratio has within the targeted 5.5%. The the food products we import, they time, it doesn’t mean they are definition of unemployment is not that we have is still comfortable; taka will depreciate so we start is fiscal and monetary policies. foreign correspondent bank. To get little bit, but if they tighten and Broad money growth is targeted at with lots of institutions is your human capital without
been flat as evident from the 2018-2019 inflation outcome are all linked with oil prices. The productive in that work. having a job but seeking one. they can finance 5 and a half selling dollars to keep taka stable. On the fiscal front we have a very a confirmation of your LC, you take a few actions like allowing 12.5 percent, with domestic credit competing, they take excessive whom you cannot face the
credit growth and capital was exactly 5.5%. Food inflation projection I have seen, oil prices The concept of unemployment in This is known as the discouraged months of imports. But comfort However, when you start doing low debt to GDP ratio. All the need to pay a fee and cost of trade the exchange rate to be more growth of 15.9 percent. The risks. They are forced to do challenges of the Fourth Industrial
machinery import numbers, was down which was the main remaining between 65-70 dollars a the textbook applies more to the worker hypothesis. Most of the and complacency are two different that you start destabilizing the analyses that IMF does, all the financing rises. They look at NPL flexible, revenue mobilization if medium-term fiscal stance is aggressive banking. The biggest Revolution. We need to focus on
which are supposed to be reason why inflation was within barrel, which is fairly standard, formal sector, where we have the women in the NEET category are things. There is no reason for reserves, because how long can projections that we do suggest ratio, interest income, return on they try to improve particularly if sustainable if taxation, challenge is the structural reform. STEM (Science, Technology,
correlated with growth. the target, but non-food but of course if we have problems manufacturing sector in a large or perhaps young married women complacency from this comfort. In you sell off dollars with persistent that the risk of public debt distress equity and when they see they are they can reduce the evasion in VAT expenditure and deficit financing Are we going to allow Engineering Mathematics).

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