WASHINGTON, October 8, 2020—South Asia is set to plunge into its worst-ever recession as the devastating impacts of COVID-19 on the region’s economies linger on, taking a disproportionate toll on informal workers and pushing millions of South Asians into extreme poverty, says the World Bank in its twice-a-year-regional update.
Released today, the latest South Asia Economic Focus forecasts a sharper than expected economic slump across the region, with regional growth expected to contract by 7.7 percent in 2020, after topping 6 percent annually in the past five years.
India’s economy, the region’s largest, is expected to contract by 9.6 percent in the fiscal year that started in March 2020. Regional growth is projected to rebound to 4.5 percent in 2021. Factoring in population growth, however, income-per-capita in the region will remain 6 percent below 2019 estimates, indicating that the expected rebound will not offset the lasting economic damage caused by the pandemic.
In previous recessions, falling investment and exports led the downturn. This time is different as private consumption, traditionally the backbone of demand in South Asia and a core indicator of economic welfare, will decline by more than 10 percent, further spiking poverty rates. A decline in remittances is also expected to accelerate loss of livelihoods for the poorest in some countries.
“The collapse of South Asian economies during COVID-19 has been more brutal than anticipated, worst of all for small businesses and informal workers who suffer sudden job losses and vanishing wages,” said Hartwig Schafer, World Bank Vice President for the South Asia Region. “Immediate relief has dulled the impacts of the pandemic, but governments need to address the deep-seated vulnerabilities of their informal sectors through smart policies and allocate their scarce resources wisely.”
“The global economic downturn will impact Bangladesh’s economy. However, the policies that the government has undertaken to mitigate the impacts are in the right direction” said Mercy Tembon, World Bank Country Director for Bangladesh and Bhutan. “For a resilient recovery, the government needs to continue to safeguard its fiscal and debt positions, build financial sector health, protect the poor and vulnerable and create a conducive environment for private sector development and job creation.”
Three-quarters of all workers in South Asia depend on informal employment, especially in hospitality, retail trade, and transport—sectors most affected by containment measures. The report warns that informal workers and firms have little room to cope with unexpected shocks of the magnitude of COVID-19. While the poor have faced rising food prices and suffered severely, the COVID-19 crisis has dealt a further blow to many informal workers in the middle of the income distribution who experienced sharp drops in earnings.
Few informal workers are covered by social insurance, have savings or access to finance. The report urges governments to design universal social protection as well as policies that support greater productivity, skills development, and human capital. In that effort, securing international and domestic financing will help governments fund crucial programs to speed up recovery. In the long-term, digital technologies can play an essential role in creating new opportunities for informal workers, making South Asia more competitive and better integrated into markets—if countries improve digital access and support workers to take advantage of online platforms.
“COVID-19 will profoundly transform South Asia for years to come and leave lasting scars in its economies. But there is a silver lining toward resilient recovery: the pandemic could spur innovations that improve South Asia’s future participation in global value chains, as its comparative advantage in tech services and niche tourism will likely be in higher demand as the global economy becomes more digital,” said Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for the South Asia Region.
The World Bank Group, one of the largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries, is taking broad, fast action to help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response. We are supporting public health interventions, working to ensure the flow of critical supplies and equipment, and helping the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs. We will be deploying up to $160 billion in financial support over 15 months to help more than 100 countries protect the poor and vulnerable, develop human capital, support businesses, and bolster economic recovery. This includes $50 billion of new IDA resources through grants and highly concessional loans.
In Washington: Yann Doignon, (202) 473-3239, firstname.lastname@example.org;
In Dhaka: Mehrin A. Mahbub (880-2) 55667777, email@example.com
World Bank South Asia: http://www.worldbank.org/southasiafocus
World Bank South Asia on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/worldbanksouthasia
World Bank South Asia on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/worldbanksasia
|REAL GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN PERCENT|
|Country||Fiscal year||2019 (e)||2020 (f)||2021 (f)||2022 (f)|
|Afghanistan||December to December||3.9||-5.5||2.5||3.3|
|Bangladesh||July to June||8.1||2.0||1.6||3.4|
|Bhutan||July to June||3.8||1.5||1.8||2.0|
|India||April to March||6.1||4.2||-9.6||5.4|
|Maldives||January to December||5.9||-19.5||9.5||12.5|
|Nepal||mid-July to mid-July||7.0||0.2||0.6||2.5|
|Pakistan||July to June||1.0||-1.5||0.5||2.0|
|Sri Lanka||January to December||2.3||-6.7||3.3||2.0|
|REVISION TO FORECASTS FROM OCTOBER 2019 IN PERCENT|
|Country||Fiscal year||2019 (e)||2020 (f)||2021(f)|
|Afghanistan||December to December||1.4||-8.5|
|Bangladesh||July to June||0||-5.2|
|Bhutan||July to June||-1.2||-5.9|
|India||April to March||-0.7||-1.8||-16.8|
|Maldives||January to December||0.7||-25.0|
|Nepal||mid-July to mid-July||-0.1||-6.2|
|Pakistan||July to June||-2.3||-3.9|
|Sri Lanka||January to December||-0.4||-10.0|
Notes: For India, 2020 refers to FY19/20 and 2021 to FY20/21. e: Estimate f: Forecast Source: World Bank. Due to COVID-19, economic circumstances in countries and regions are fluid and change daily. Analysis in the report is based on the latest country-level data available as of September 30, 2020.
Video message from
World Bank Country Director for Bangladesh and Bhutan