Can climate change wipe out our entire food supply?
It is a universally accepted notion that climate change poses a huge threat to human food supply. Food supply and human existence are inevitably interwoven. One of the essential components that make up food supply is crops. Crops are the principal source of staple food that people consume all over the world, especially in Bangladesh where our diets are heavily rice-based. It’s impossible to imagine a meal without rice; as they say, we are, after all, maache bhaate Bangali. Rice is by far the most important crop in our country with it taking up an astounding 74% of total crop area, but Bangladesh is also an important producer of other major crops such as wheat, maize, potatoes and jute. Unfortunately, Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to climate change; according to the Global Climate Risk Index, Bangladesh ranked among the top 10 countries in the world most affected by extreme weather conditions between 1998–2021. The agriculture sector is the most susceptible to the perils of climate change as its productivity is at the mercy of climatic factors like temperature, rainfall, light intensity, etc. which are becoming increasingly erratic.
Impact of temperature on crop production
All crops have an optimum temperature range for their vegetative and reproductive growth. Whenever the temperature fluctuates from this range, crop production quite naturally suffers. It has been found that when there was a 1°C increase during the reproductive stage of Aman rice, there was a decrease in production by 53.26 tonnes. Furthermore, the cultivation of wheat is severely impaired when temperatures increase by just 2°C. To put things into perspective, Bangladesh has already become hotter with a 0.5°C increase in mean temperature between 1976 and 2019. Moreover, its average annual temperatures are expected to rise by 1.0°C to 1.5°C by 2050 despite any preventive measures recommended by the Paris climate change agreement being taken. If no measures are taken, then the country’s average temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.0°C to 2.5°C which will have catastrophic consequences on crop production.
If no measures are taken, then the country’s average temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.0°C to 2.5°C which will have catastrophic consequences on crop production.
Impact of rainfall on crop production
Rainfall is one of the key elements when it comes to crop production, as crops simply cannot survive without adequate amounts of water. A fine balance is needed, however, excessive rainfall may lead to flooding and waterlogging whereas rain scarcity severely inhibits the cultivation of crops. Climate change is disrupting this balance – a report by the World Bank states that while there has been no major change in the overall trend for rainfall between 1976 and 2019, there have been significant variations over the years. For the peak monsoon season from June to August – the average monthly mean rainfall has declined by approximately 60 mm, while mean monthly rainfall for September and October have increased by 43 mm, between 1901 and 2019. Due to the irregular nature of rainfall now, it has become increasingly difficult to grow crops consistently. This year has been particularly dry: rain has been abnormally scarce
leading to many farmers complaining about disrupted crop growth due to low soil moisture. This is a stark contrast from the prolonged flood last year, showcasing just how erratic the weather has become with climate change pushing each circumstance to its extreme.
Impact of rising sea levels on crop production
Rising sea levels is one of the most substantial dangers we are facing as a result of climate change. During the 20th century, sea levels rose by an average of 10 to 20 cm around the world, which is ten times higher than the average rate over the last 3000 years. If this trend continues, thousands of square miles of land will be lost. Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea-level rise due to the low elevation of the land areas. Rising sea levels, in turn, exacerbate the already worsening weather. The frequency and depth of salinity intrusion, flooding and cyclones have increased immensely. Sudden flooding has almost become the norm; more than 5000 sq km of the country face flash floods each year. Flash floods wreak havoc on crops as farmers aren’t able to anticipate them. Thousands of acres of ripe Boro paddy and almost 2.6 million hectares of crops are being damaged every year because of severe floods.
In general, farmers in Bangladesh have been hesitant in embracing mechanisation but such examples of losing income could discourage them further and make them stick to the traditional farming methods which in the long run, increases their vulnerability even more.
The socio-economic repercussions
While food security is unquestionably a pressing issue that has arisen, there are also far-reaching socio-economic consequences that Bangladesh may face due to climate change. Bangladesh has a primarily agrarian economy, with more than 70% of its land area devoted to growing crops and the sector boasting 19% of the country’s GDP. Additionally, it employs close to 50% of the country’s population, therefore it is not just a means of food security, but the very livelihood of many. It has also been instrumental in reducing poverty, accounting for 90% of poverty reduction between 2005 and 2010. Crop production provides stability to many by raising rural income and providing jobs to low-income groups. Therefore, one must pose the question: what happens to our farmers if climate change disrupts crop yields? Agriculture in Bangladesh is typically characterised by traditional farming methods using draft animals for ploughing and hand hoes for land preparation and sowing. However, the use of small-scale mechanisation is growing to keep up with modern times, so to speak. Mechanisation already drives up costs and with consistently decreasing crop yields, the farmers’ investments fall short as their already limited income is squeezed. In general, farmers in Bangladesh have been hesitant in embracing mechanisation but such examples of losing income could discourage them further and make them stick to the traditional farming methods which in the long run, increases their vulnerability even more. In turn, the economy becomes more dependent on low cost, low skilled labour which does not necessarily encourage the youth to develop skills and create a skill-based economy.
Next steps
Recent times have demonstrated that more capital intensive farming leads to not only a greater yield of crops but also more innovation which enables countries to reach food sustenance as well as create more jobs. Take China, for example, where modern agriculture is being developed in the form of smart farming technology, including drone and satellite imagery and e-commerce training for farmers. This is essentially the future of agrarian economies such as Bangladesh and a means to address potential food shortages in other developing nations. A modern agricultural system can make a big difference, with environmental resources and aid potentially being a click away. We should equip our farmers, through training and education, with the skills to combat climate change and quickly respond to issues such as uncertain crop yields and erratic weather. Therefore, it is critical that our government recognises this and incentivises more innovative and modern farming practices to strengthen the agricultural sector, economically empower our farmers and youth and ensure sustenance for the country.
