What the world will look like if the global temperature exceeds 3°C beyond pre-industrial levels.
With the increasing emission of greenhouse gases, global warming is an undeniable reality. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that without significant intervention, the world will reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by as early as 2030, and 3°C by the end of the century. A 3°C rise in global temperature could have devastating consequences for the world, with Bangladesh being affected the most.
Industrialisation: The Root of All Evil
The Donora smog of 1948 killed 20 people and caused respiratory problems for 6,000 of the 14,000 residents of Donora, Pennsylvania. In 1952, a deadly smog blanketed London for 5 days, caused by a combination of industrial pollution and meteorological conditions of high pressure. It nearly paralysed London and resulted in thousands of fatalities. The Donora smog and London smog were two of the first few incidents that made it evident that the industrial revolution was having a direct impact on the environment. We now know that the industrial revolution has caused global temperatures to rise by more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels, and this has led to a range of adverse effects including rising sea levels and higher frequencies of severe droughts, heatwaves, floods, and storms.
Beyond the 3°C Tipping Point
If global temperatures continue to rise and reach 3°C above pre-industrial levels, the Earth would become significantly less habitable. One of the biggest problems would be more frequent and severe droughts and storms, affecting food output and water supplies. Droughts are expected to occur twice as often and storms are expected to increase by 60%. Rising temperatures are melting polar ice caps and glaciers, raising sea levels which are causing millions of people to migrate and leave their homes. It is estimated that around 2 billion people, or 1/5th of the global population could become climate change refugees by 2100. Higher temperatures will also impact agriculture. Between 2.0% to 4.4% of all arable land could become unsuitable for crop production. Heatwaves will also get worse and happen more frequently. Currently, there is a 1-in-10 chance of a heatwave occurring in any year. Rising global temperature increases that chance by 3 times.
Bangladesh: Ground Zero for Climate Change
Bangladesh will be one of the most severely affected countries due to a 3°C rise in global temperature. The biggest impact will be due to the rising sea level which is expected to submerge 17% of the nation’s land. According to a World Bank (WB) report, the coastal divisions of Chattogram, Barishal and Khulna will be worst affected due to the 3°C rise and consequent sea level rise. The residents of these affected areas are likely to migrate north to the capital, putting huge economic strains on Dhaka. The living standards of affected regions are expected to fall by 2050 as agricultural and labour productivity will be directly impacted, and higher population densities in cities where refugees migrate to are likely to increase the spread of vector-borne and infectious diseases. WB predicts living standards to fall by 20% in Cox’s Bazar, 18% in Chittagong, 15% in Rangamati, and 13% in Feni.
A 3°C rise in temperature could lower Bangladesh’s crop output. As the sea level rises, the intensity of salinity intrusion into farmlands in coastal areas grows with it. From 1973 to 2009, salinity intrusion increased by 27%. Additionally, water logging and drought have rendered 30% to 50% of agricultural land uncultivable. The sea level in Bangladesh has been rising by 3 mm per year. At this rate, by 2050, rice production has been predicted to fall by 8% and wheat production by 32%. Access to potable water is also declining as groundwater aquifers are affected by saline water.
In the northwest, the rise in temperature will have profound effects on agriculture. The rate of evaporation will increase reducing the level of soil moisture levels, particularly in Rajshahi and adjacent districts that get only moderate rainfall. In northeastern regions, particularly in Sylhet, flash floods and heavy rainfall are expected to become more severe. For the last few years, Sylhet’s weather has been verging on the extreme. In 2022, the district experienced the highest rainfall in 62 years, at 1,456 mm in one month. Experts suspect climate change to be the leading cause of this unexpected downpour. The rivers and reservoirs of Sylhet are not able to hold water making the region vulnerable to flash floods.
Dhaka faces the challenge of climate migration. According to the Mayors Migration Council, an estimated 2,000 people are moving to Dhaka every day. An already overcrowded megacity, climate change will push this number higher. Climate migrants have nowhere to settle in the capital except for illegal settlements like the Korail slum. Nearly 200,000 people live in the Korail slum which covers approximately 100 acres. The majority of migrants who move into slums used to work in the agricultural sector before being displaced, and they find no related employment opportunities in the capital. On top of that, living conditions are squalid, but alternatives are virtually non-existent as the city’s infrastructure has been pushed over the brink. Dhaka has to accept the daunting realisation that its economy is simply not robust enough to support the unrestrained migrant influx.
It is frustrating that Bangladesh is a victim of such climate injustice. In 2020, the average Bangladeshi emitted about 0.56 tonnes of carbon dioxide, while the average American emitted 14.24 tonnes. Yet, we are the ones bearing the brunt. Cyclones, monsoons, flash floods, landslides, eroded shorelines and rising sea levels have swallowed homes, disrupted economic activities, deteriorated public health, and uprooted livelihoods. These have been the impact so far due to a mere 1°C rise in global temperature. Considering Bangladesh’s current contribution to global greenhouse gases is not significant at only 0.4%, a 3°C rise would not only amplify the effects of climate change but also victimise the country further to climate injustice.
It has become imperative that nations band together to slow down the rate at which the global temperature is rising. As stated in the Paris Agreement, we must move quickly to keep the temperature rise to less than 2°C.
The Paris Agreement: Our Last Chance to Save the Planet?
The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change first signed in 2015. As of 2023, 194 parties have signed the agreement with a common goal to contain global warming between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The plan includes steps to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions, respond to the effects of climate change, and aid poor countries in achieving their sustainable development goals. One of the best things about the Paris Agreement is that it gives countries a long-term collaborative opportunity to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This gives governments and companies the time and direction they need to plan and invest in low-carbon products and infrastructure, and countries a way to keep track of and report on their progress. However, the Paris Agreement has been criticised for not providing concrete plans on how these goals can be achieved. Additionally, the agreement does not explicitly state how climate finance will be distributed to aid poorer nations in adopting a low-carbon development path. Bangladesh has therefore proposed a localised strategy called the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP2100) that sets realistic goals taking into account the most imperative threats, the country’s resource constraints, and the feasibility of development endeavours.
BDP2100: Taking Matters Into Our Own Hands
In view of the special long-term challenges for development outcomes presented by climate change and natural hazards, the Government of Bangladesh has adopted a long-term integrated tecno-economic plan, the BDP2100. The goals, associated strategies, policies, institutions and investments under the BDP2100 are adaptive in nature in order to respond appropriately to the changing global climate scenario.
The BDP2100 provides nationwide strategies on flood risk and freshwater management alongside 9 other thematic areas – water supply sanitation and waste management; transboundary water management; dynamising inland water transport system; agriculture, food security, nutrition and livelihood; sustainable land use and spatial planning; environment, ecology and bio-diversity; advancing the blue economy; renewable energy; and earthquake. These strategies will be deployed in six ‘hotspots’ – coastal zones, Barind and drought-prone areas, haor and flash flood areas, Chattogram Hill Tracts, river systems and estuaries, and urban areas.
The formulation of BDP2100 and its implementation is a complicated process. As the plan develops, it has to be adapted to manage uncertainty and risks, and, when required, adopt better solutions when available. In this respect, BDP2100 requires changing the usual planning and decision-making process impacting the delta and related governance and institutional environment.
Preparing for a 3°C Warmer World
Exploring the potential impacts of a 3°C rise in global temperature makes it abundantly clear that action needs to be taken urgently. From devastating weather events to the loss of livelihoods, the implications of global warming are vast and far-reaching. While there are measures being taken they need to be coupled with a concerted effort from governments, businesses, and individuals alike to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a more sustainable future. The cost of inaction is simply too great, and we owe it to ourselves and future generations to take action today for a safer tomorrow.
