Page 66 - ICE BUSINESS TIMES February 2020

Aerial Technology
Rulers of
Tomorrow’s
Skies
THE RISE OF PREDATOR
DRONES IN MODERN
DAY WARFARE
By Farhat Zishan
Warfare has come a long way from its
yesteryears. From horse-driven chariots
of the Roman era to the heavy tanks
dominating on land, war has evolved
over the years – across all fronts. Faster
fighter jets, military submarines
immersing into greater depths,
amphibian military vehicles acing on
multiple fronts. One of the latest
innovations in this frontier is the
introduction of predator drones. While
drones have earned a reputation in
taking picturesque photographs and
delivery products, warmongers have
utilized these tiny flying carriers as
lethal objects. From spying on foreign
territories to carrying missiles, predator
drones have become an indispensable
military asset for many countries. And
interestingly, many drone
manufacturing companies are amassing
huge wealth while nations are indulging
in drone warfare.
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THE BEGINNING
The man responsible for creating the
first predator drone would be British
inventor Dr. Archibald Low. Dr Low was
recruited into the Royal Flying Corps to
develop the control system for an
uncrewed aircraft, covertly named
‘Aerial Targets’. In these desperate times
it was hoped that they would be capable
of attacking the German airships that,
from 1915, flew regular bombing flights
over London. Archie Low was also set to
work assisting with the development of
an explosive bullet, another intended
having to fly their drones while sat in
a nearby manned aircraft. Moreover,
they were overshadowed by globe
spanning satellite networks and much
advanced, supersonic manned spy
planes, such as the U-2 and SR-71
Blackbird.
Major progress of drones came with
the help of an Israeli aviation genius
who in the 1970s started to develop
aircraft with glider-like properties.
Incredibly long, thin wings that could
hold the plane aloft at altitude for
hours on end, on a more than 24
hours flight.
This endurance is a fundamental
reason why today’s armed drones,
such as the General Atomics Reaper
drone, are so in vogue. The key is
keeping the pilots on the ground: the
drones are lighter than manned
solution to the Zeppelin menace. In aircraft and they don’t have to land
when they get tired, they just swap
seats with a fresh crew.
the autumn of 1916 these bullets
Their ability to loiter proved
were used to shoot down one of these
marauding airships, finally ending invaluable in the 1990s, during the
escalating conflict in the former
their reign of total aerial supremacy.
Yugoslavia. There was a dearth of
The success of the bullets removed
good intelligence about Serbian tank
the need for an uncrewed aircraft to
attack airships. However, by then and troop movements. U.S. supersonic
Low’s team had made such jets were struggling to spot the
Serbian forces in the thick Balkan
encouraging progress with their
'drone' remote control system that forests but the drones could stay on
the military continued to support this station for 24 hours at a time, and
kept their unblinking eye on their
innovative project.
The first trial of the drone was held targets.
on Wednesday 21 March 1917 at the Combining this loitering with the
RFC Central Flying School base at second crucial advance, the use of
Upavon on Salisbury Plain. The 'pilot' transmitters to send the footage
was none other than Henry Segrave, straight back to battlefield
who would later go on to hold both commanders, is credited with
the land-speed and water-speed convincing Nato generals they needed
world records, not to mention a to start bombing the Serbs again, so
knighthood. The first drone failed to hastening the signing of the Dayton
launch correctly; but the second one peace accords.
somehow managed to hover in the The U.S. has since taken those Balkan
air. And that is how, 14 years after systems further. The signal to control
the Wright Brothers’ flight and two them, and the returning video footage,
years into the first World War, the are now transmitted through satellite
first ever radio-controlled drone networks, not radio waves. In 2000
finally took off. first remote-controlled aircraft named the U.S. took the final leap forward
Radioplane OQ-2. This is marked as when the Air Force and CIA became
DEVELOPMENTS the world’s first mass-produced the first to successfully fit drones with
Drones were still in their infancy Unmanned Aerial Vehicle product. missiles, as part of a failed CIA
stage during the Second World War Drones were still only a niche attempt to kill Osama bin Laden.
and during the Cold War. In the technology during the Cold War. They These satellite controlled hunter-killer
Second World War, U.S. military were unreliable, small yet expensive, drones allow pilots to control their
personnel Reginald Denny made the and pilots had to be within range of aircraft from half a world away and it
their analogue radio signals, often allows generals, spies and politicians
to watch the war they are waging on "General Atomics is the top vendor
the other side of the world, live on TV that owns more than a third of the
from anywhere in the world. Defense market at more than $4
America’s drones started life as spy billion," the research states. "Northrop
planes and were augmented over the Grumman is a distant second with
years to become assassination less than half of that capture.
weapons. They have been hovering up Combined, these top two vendors
information, feeding the military’s account for more than 50 percent of
insatiable demand for battlefield the UAS market. Textron owns 10
intelligence, and finding and killing percent of the market, while Boeing
terrorists and insurgents. rounds out the top four with seven
percent."
THE INDUSTRY
Global spending on unmanned aerial DRONE-BACKED
vehicles is set for a major expansion NATIONS
in the coming decade as militaries According to a report from the Center
invest about $98 billion in new
intelligence gathering and strike for the Study of the Drone, predator
drone technology has spread to 95
capabilities, experts say. The Teal
countries, a massive increase over the
Group, an aerospace and defense
only 60 countries that possessed this
industry market analysis firm, expects
worldwide research-and-development kind of technology roughly a decade
ago. The U.S., Israel, China, Iran and
and procurement spending on
Russia are the superpowers that are
predator drones to rise from a
leading the race in terms of
projected $11.1 billion in 2020 to
$14.3 billion by 2029 — nearly a 30 developing and deploying predator
drones for their national interests.
percent increase. R&D spending is
Drones rapidly proliferated in a second
forecasted to grow from $3.2 billion in
wave over the past five years, with
2020 to $4 billion in 2029. According
to Steve Zaloga, one of the company’s Pakistan and Turkey developing their
own programmes. Since 2016, Turkey
senior analysts, the U.S. is expected to has used drones heavily, against the
lead the race from the front, with R&D
spending increasing from an separatist Kurdish PKK in its own
country, in northern Iraq and more
estimated $2.2 billion in 2020 to $2.7 recently against Kurdish groups in
billion in 2029, and procurement
ramping up from $2.5 billion in 2020 Syria. China, meanwhile, has begun
to about $3.3 billion by the end of the supplying a range of countries with its
decade. Wing Loong and CH series drones,
including to the U.A.E – where they
Several factors are said to drive the have been used in a string of deadly
anticipated rise in global investment strikes in Libya – as well as Egypt,
in predator drones. One is that many Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq,
armed forces are acquiring unmanned although not every country has been
aerial vehicles for the first time and able to deploy what it has bought.
pursuing new capabilities, he said. Predator drones have already changed
The other reason is that there is a warfare, providing a more efficient
growing demand for intelligence, alternative to conventional aerial
surveillance and reconnaissance Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd., missions. But experts worry that they
assets as nations focus on Leonardo, Northrop Grumman, make it easier for countries to embark
information warfare. Experts have Textron Systems. and Lockheed on wars and undeclared “shadow
also speculated that drones are likely Martin are the companies that wars”, and put non-combatants at
to become “loyal wingman”, i.e. they dominate the industry of predator greater risk. So, while predator drones
can accompany manned fighter jets drones. According to market research are on the rise, we can only hope for
into battle or conduct attacks on their firm Govini, General Atomics, the increase in usage of drones in the
own. Northrop Grumman, Textron and ‘better’ aspects of life – delivering
Despite being a mammoth industry, Boeing account for 66 percent of the products, business, journalism and
the game is in the hands of a very few, $9 billion U.S. predator drone market. even in humanitarian aid. Only then
powerful companies. BAE Systems The General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper shall we be able to do justice to this
Inc., Aerovironment Inc., Boeing, alone accounted for more than a invention.
General Atomic, China Aerospace, quarter of the market.