Page 22 - November 2020

Economic Forecast
UNBEATABLE
BANGLADESH
By Farhat Zishan
How the
fastest
growing
economy of
South Asia
overtook the
mighty India
All the countries across the
globe have witnessed economic
and social transformations in
2020, largely because of the
pandemic. But Bangladesh has
managed to go against the
odds; in a spectacular run and
is set to overtake its neighbor
India in terms of per capita seen to increase by 4% to a
gross domestic product (GDP) in
2020. International Monetary of India declined by 10.3% to a
Fund (IMF) recently published a
report which states that Experts state that this
20
Bangladesh a few years ago in inland water bodies, behind
China and India, according to a
terms of per capita GDP. Thanks to
report of Food and Agriculture
its massive rise in exports,
Bangladesh has managed to Organization (FAO).
significantly close the gap. Not
2. Exports - The country's
only that, IMF’s report also shows
merchandise shipments during
that Bangladesh is already set to
post the highest per capita GDP the first quarter (Q1) of the
current fiscal year (FY), 2020-21,
growth rate in South Asia and the grew by 2.58 percent to US$ 9.89
fourth-highest in the whole of billion over that of the same
Asia in 2020 compared to that of period of last fiscal. The
last year, comfortably ahead of July-September export earnings
India and China. The country's per also surpassed the target set for
capita GDP growth would become
the sixth highest in the world in the period by 2.45 percent,
according to provisional data of
the current calendar year, despite the Export Promotion Bureau
all the economic setbacks that all
(EPB). The export recovery has
the countries had to go through started in June and continued in
due to the global coronavirus
pandemic. September also and as the
gradual reopening of western
Experts have dissected this markets is taking place, the
spectacular achievement of
placement of new orders coupled
Bangladesh and have identified with the revival of the majority of
the key factors that have played a
major role in it. They have stated the previously suspended or
canceled ready-made garment
that the three pillars of growth (RMG) work-orders are
that have made this herculean significantly contributing to the
task achievable are – turnaround.
1. Agriculture – Bangladesh's rice 3. Remittance - Bangladeshi
production rose by 2 million expatriates have made a new
tonnes alone last fiscal year record in outward remittance by
compared to that a year ago. Prior sending over $6.71 billion in the
to the pandemic, Bangladesh has July-September period in the
gained significant success in midst of the coronavirus
agriculture, achieving pandemic. The amount is 48.57
third-fastest growth in vegetable percent more than the money
production, fourth position in rice received in the same period last
production, third in fish year. In September alone, the
production from inland water expatriates remitted more than
bodies, fifth in aquaculture $2.15 billion, the second-highest
production and seventh position in a month after $2.6 billion in
in mango production in the world.
Analysts and economists are The country has been ranked July. Finance Minister AHM
perceiving India’s economic third in producing fish from Mustafa Kamal hopes the
performance as a dire signal. This remittance inflow in the 2020-21
contraction is reportedly the third fiscal year will total over $24
sharpest fall in the world; right billion.
phenomenon has occurred after Spain and Italy. If IMF’s While the entire country
mostly due to the rapidly rising forecast is accurate, then India celebrates this massive success
levels of agricultural will only be ahead of Nepal and and is working collectively to
production, the export of Pakistan’s GDP in terms of a take the country to greater
multiple goods and services, regional comparison. On the other heights, we must ensure that
and the high inflow of hand, the remaining countries of these achievements are sustained
remittance from the South Asia – the ones that are in the long run. Such small steps,
Bangladesh’s GDP has been Bangladeshi expats. experiencing tremendous growth through repetition, will
Bangladesh has been highly – shall be well ahead of India. eventually solidify our presence
value of $1,888; while the GDP praised by the media of both This cohort comprises of and impact on the global stage. It
countries; including a bravo Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and is time that we ensure that such
diminishing value of $1,877. from one of India’s key political not to mention Bangladesh. economic growth and progress is
figures. India was well ahead of one of the many more to come.