Page 64 - IBT October 2020
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Bangladesh have been working   Workers who are still employed                                                                                                                                                       LDCs could not capitalise on the
 in the Middle-Eastern and   abroad have been sending more                                                                                                                                                           same opportunities due to
 South-East Asian countries.   money to their distressed families                                                                                                                                                    supply side constraints and lack
 They have helped us earn a   during the pandemic. Moreover,                                                                                                                                                         of capacity. However, we have
 large volume of foreign   the returnee migrant workers                                                                                                                                                              to do better. We need to address
 exchange income.  have brought back all their                                                                                                                                                                       the infrastructural constraints,
 Although the growth   savings. So, the volume of                                                                                                                                                                    and administrative
 momentum has taken a hit   remittance income has increased                                                                                                                                                          complications including delays
 because of the coronavirus   significantly.                                                                                                                                                                         in decision making.
 pandemic, we have to remember   Therefore, after lockdown for two,                                                                                                                                                  Once Bangladesh graduates
 that this is an unprecedented   we have seen a gradual opening                                                                                                                                                      from the LDC category, it will
 and unavoidable circumstance.   up of the economy. While the                                                                                                                                                        lose its presidential treatment
 The global economy is reeling   health alerts are still on,                                                                                                                                                         in terms of duty-free market
 from the pandemic so we   economic activities are                                                                                                                                                                   access. If Bangladesh graduates
 should not be too hard on   increasingly coming to normalcy.                                                                                                                                                        in 2024, it will get another
 become an upper middle-income   ourselves.  If this trend continues and if                                                                                                                                          three years as a grace period to
 country by 2031 and a developed   COVID-19 has disrupted the   there is no spike of COVID-19,                                                                                                                       prepare for smooth graduation,
 country by 2041.  production system and supply   Bangladesh's economy will do                                                             Unemployment                                                              so that when in 2027 trade
 Several factors facilitated this   chain within the country.   well.                                                                      Despite high growth, youth                                                preferences are finally
 achievement; policy support from   Domestic demand has been   However, there are numerous                                                 unemployment is high. Though                                              withdrawn, the country is well
 the government and hard work of   hampered. The shock has also   challenges that we have to be                                            the national unemployment rate                                            prepared to cope with the new
 Bangladeshi people are the major   come from external sources;   aware of. The pandemic has                                               is 4.2 per cent, youth                                                    circumstances. Hence, the
 factors. Continuity of supportive   exports have declined,   affected all the countries in the                                            unemployment rate is 10.6 per                                             country has to prepare from
 policies is pivotal to ensure good   remittance initially declined.   world. So, the nature and speed                                     cent. We need more investment                                             now on to adjust to the new
 economic performance. It   Fortunately, both the sectors   of our recovery will significantly                                             for job creation. Every year about                                        reality. It has to be strong
 provides predictability to the   have bounced back. Exports   depend on how other countries                                               20 lakh job seekers enter the                                             enough and competitive enough
 investors. It also saves resources.   have increased recently.   recover from the crisis. Besides,                                        labour market. But our economy              International                 to export by paying duties and
 If there are any interruptions or   (agriculture, industry, service)   Remittance inflow has   we have to look into the perennial         is not large enough to absorb               trade                         still can sustain its export
 abrupt changes in government   have been playing an   increased significantly during   weaknesses of our economy. To                      everyone who enters the job                 After independence, Bangladesh   volumes and income.
 policy, it will have impacts on   instrumental role in facilitating   the last two months. But   ensure the continuity of high            market. Therefore, the                      used to be identified as an   The preparation will also be for
 investor confidence, especially in   the economic achievements.   COVID-19 has been a challenge   growth, we have to ensure that   growth trajectory over the next   on technology and livelihoods   employment strategy should be   aid-dependent country because   taking advantage of new trade
 the case of foreign investors. If   Speaking of the industrial   this fiscal year (FY 2021) and   infrastructural development   decade. As the country is in the   for better adaptation to climate   focused not only on creating more   we were highly dependent on   benefits even after LDC
 policies change frequently,   sector, over 80 per cent of our   the immediate past fiscal year   meets the demand of the   path of double graduation   change. We also have to urge   jobs in the public and private   foreign aid. We needed a large   graduation. However, that
 project implementation is   export income comes from the   (FY2020). As a result, our   investors. Investment is pivotal   mentioned at the outset of this   the developed countries to   sector, but also create   amount of foreign funds to deal   requires fulfilment of stringent
 hampered and sometimes stalled.   readymade garment (RMG)   projected growth rate which   for continuation of growth   article (from LDC to developing   enhance support towards   opportunities for   with a war-affected economy.   compliances in areas such as
 This leads to wastage of   sector. The entrepreneurs   was to be 8.2 percent for   momentum and higher income.  and from lower middle-income   adaptation. We need technology   self-employment. This will require   However, over the last five   labour, environmental, and
 resources.  deserve a lot of credit for the   FY2020 has declined to 5.24 per   Unfortunately, the private sector   to upper-middle income   for innovations for climate   enhanced access to finance. The   decades, we have graduated   human rights issues.
 By Fahmida Khatun  Secondly, many sectors have   success of the apparel sector. It   cent according to the   investment has not been so   country) maintaining high   tolerant agriculture, and we   from an aid-dependent country   There is an urgent need for
 Executive Director, Centre for Policy   significantly benefited from these   is also the four million workers   Bangladesh Bureau of   promising. Had it been higher, it   economic performance will be   have to invest in embankments,   government will need to allocate   to a trade-dependent one.   export diversification. Our trade
 Dialogue (CPD)                                           critical.  Diversification of the   shelters, and job creation for               resources for the youth who want
 policies, including agriculture,   who extend their labour for the   Statistics.  would have created more                                 to start their own businesses.              Currently, the share of trade in   is concentrated on only a very
 industry and the services sector.   industry. They have been a   Our exports have bounced back   employment and enhanced   economy and reduction on a   the affected people who will   Bangladesh GDP is around 37   few items, mostly on RMG. It is
 Over the last decade, Bangladesh   And the people of Bangladesh   narrow export basket are badly   suffer due to sea level rise           Besides, we need to redesign our
 has seen consistent and stable   have been able to take advantage   major driver of industrial   thanks to increase in RMG   economic growth further. If the   needed for the country. At the   which is the result of global   education system according to   per cent while the share of   extremely risky to have such a
 growth. Its growth rate has been   of that support. As a result, the   growth, exports and foreign   exports in recent months, a   domestic private sector   same time, performance on   warming.  contemporary market demands.   foreign aid is about 2 percent of   narrow export basket. Any
 much higher compared to its   agriculture sector has managed   exchange income. Similarly, the   diametric scenario from during   investment does not pick up,   social indicators such as   In addition to climate change,   We have to change the mind-set   GDP.  internal and external sock can
 peers in South Asia. This has   to see positive changes. Our food   government has been   the height of the pandemic   foreign investors will not be   education and health outcomes   there may be other external   of having a university degree by   Also, due to the policies which   create a serious crisis. The
 allowed Bangladesh to be   production has been   supporting the sector since the   which saw a lot of cancelled   encouraged to invest. Modern   will also be determining factors   shocks which could affect   everyone. We have to expand   were taken in the mid-'80s and   government has identified a few
 categorised as a high performing   awe-inspiring, and we have been   emergence of the industry in   orders. It has been reported that   infrastructure, skilled human   for Bangladesh’s   Bangladesh's economy.   vocational training and   early 90's which made a shift   thrust sectors which have
 economy. As a result, Bangladesh   able to achieve food sufficiency.   the 80s. Global opportunities   almost 80 -90 percent of the   resource, efficient bureaucracy,   transformation. It will also   COVID-19 is an ongoing   job-specific training. Now that the   towards market economy and   potential to expand. But the
 has been able to meet up all three   Only about five per cent of our   like Multi fibre arrangement   cancelled orders have been   corruption-free business   depend on how we address our   challenge. The global economic   fourth industrial revolution has   trade liberalisation there has   progress towards diversification
 criteria required to be considered   food requirement is imported.   (MFA), which provided duty-free   reinstated.  environment, policy stability, and   vulnerability due to the impact   meltdown of 2008 is another   dawned upon us, and the   been a gradual increase of   is still not encouraging. These
 for graduation from a least   Even during the pandemic, the   export of Bangladeshi RMG also   Similarly, following the   low political risks are essential to   of climate change. Of course,   example.  So, external factors   pandemic has forced mass   trade, mainly through RMG   sectors will have to be
 developed country (LDC) to a   agricultural output has been   helped.  outbreak of the pandemic and   attract investment. Currently, we   Bangladesh is a victim since   can play a role in the pace of   adaptation of technology, there   exports. As an LDC, Bangladesh   supported with substantive
 developing country. It is expected   excellent. Production of rice and   The contribution of the services   worldwide lockdowns,   are ranked poorly in the global   climate change is the result of   Bangladesh’s growth. While we   will be more demand for high   has been provided the duty-free   policy measures.
 that Bangladesh will become a   other agricultural commodities   sector has been increasing   thousands of migrant workers   competitiveness index published   the actions by the developed   are optimistic about having a   skilled human resources.    quota free access to the
 developing country by 2024. It   has been very good which has   steadily. The sector accounts for   have returned to Bangladesh   by the World Economic Forum. We   countries. Therefore, we have to   higher growth, the domestic   Technology can be an enhancer as   European and many other
 has also graduated from a   helped the country to pull   over fifty of the Gross Domestic   after losing their jobs. The   will have to work towards   adapt to the effects of climate   and unpredictable external   well as a divider. Unless it is   markets in the world. And
 low-income country to a lower   through during COVID-19. So, the   Product (GDP) of Bangladesh.   migrants still continue to return   overcoming the limitations to tap   changes.  Bangladesh has been   factors on which we have no   accessible by all, inequality will   Bangladesh could utilise the
 middle-income country.   people behind the three sectors   Semi-skilled and low skilled   as the economic conditions of   the full potentials of the economy.  successfully doing so. However,   control can slow down the   increase. And if growth is not   opportunities provided to LDCs,
 Bangladesh now aspires to   human resources from   their employers have declined.   These factors will determine our   there has to be more investment   momentum.  equitable, it is not sustainable.  whereas numerous African

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