Page 63 - IBT October 2020
P. 63

Our exports have                       Bangladesh have been working                        Workers who are still employed                                                                                                                                                                         LDCs could not capitalise on the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  same opportunities due to
                                                                                                                                           abroad have been sending more
                                                                                       in the Middle-Eastern and
                                                bounced back                           South-East Asian countries.                         money to their distressed families                                                                                                                                                                     supply side constraints and lack
                                                                                                                                           during the pandemic. Moreover,
                                                                                       They have helped us earn a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  of capacity. However, we have
                                                thanks to                              large volume of foreign                             the returnee migrant workers                                                                                                                                                                           to do better. We need to address
                                                                                       exchange income.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the infrastructural constraints,
                                                                                                                                           have brought back all their
                                                increase in RMG                        Although the growth                                 savings. So, the volume of                                                                                                                                                                             and administrative
                                                                                       momentum has taken a hit
                                                                                                                                           remittance income has increased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  complications including delays
                                                exports in recent                      because of the coronavirus                          significantly.                                                                                                                                                                                         in decision making.
                                                                                                                                           Therefore, after lockdown for two,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Once Bangladesh graduates
                                                                                       pandemic, we have to remember
                                                months, a                              that this is an unprecedented                       we have seen a gradual opening                                                                                                                                                                         from the LDC category, it will
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  lose its presidential treatment
                                                                                                                                           up of the economy. While the
                                                                                       and unavoidable circumstance.
                                                diametric                              The global economy is reeling                       health alerts are still on,                                                                                                                                                                            in terms of duty-free market
                                                                                                                                           economic activities are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  access. If Bangladesh graduates
                                                                                       from the pandemic so we
                                                scenario from                          should not be too hard on                           increasingly coming to normalcy.                                                                                                                                                                       in 2024, it will get another
             become an upper middle-income                                             ourselves.                                          If this trend continues and if                                                                                                                                                                         three years as a grace period to
             country by 2031 and a developed    during the height                      COVID-19 has disrupted the                          there is no spike of COVID-19,                                                                                                                                                                         prepare for smooth graduation,
             country by 2041.                                                          production system and supply                        Bangladesh's economy will do                                                                                                 Unemployment                                                              so that when in 2027 trade
             Several factors facilitated this   of the pandemic                        chain within the country.                           well.                                                                                                                        Despite high growth, youth                                                preferences are finally
             achievement; policy support from                                          Domestic demand has been                            However, there are numerous                                                                                                  unemployment is high. Though                                              withdrawn, the country is well
             the government and hard work of    which saw a lot of                     hampered. The shock has also                        challenges that we have to be                                                                                                the national unemployment rate                                            prepared to cope with the new
             Bangladeshi people are the major                                          come from external sources;                         aware of. The pandemic has                                                                                                   is 4.2 per cent, youth                                                    circumstances. Hence, the
             factors. Continuity of supportive   cancelled orders.                     exports have declined,                              affected all the countries in the                                                                                            unemployment rate is 10.6 per                                             country has to prepare from
             policies is pivotal to ensure good                                        remittance initially declined.                      world. So, the nature and speed                                                                                              cent. We need more investment                                             now on to adjust to the new
             economic performance. It                                                  Fortunately, both the sectors                       of our recovery will significantly                                                                                           for job creation. Every year about                                        reality. It has to be strong
             provides predictability to the                                            have bounced back. Exports                          depend on how other countries                                                                                                20 lakh job seekers enter the                                             enough and competitive enough
             investors. It also saves resources.                                       have increased recently.                            recover from the crisis. Besides,                                                                                            labour market. But our economy               International                to export by paying duties and
             If there are any interruptions or            (agriculture, industry, service)   Remittance inflow has                         we have to look into the perennial                                                                                           is not large enough to absorb                trade                        still can sustain its export
             abrupt changes in government                 have been playing an         increased significantly during                      weaknesses of our economy. To                                                                                                everyone who enters the job                  After independence, Bangladesh   volumes and income.
             policy, it will have impacts on              instrumental role in facilitating   the last two months. But                     ensure the continuity of high                                                                                                market. Therefore, the                       used to be identified as an   The preparation will also be for
             investor confidence, especially in           the economic achievements.   COVID-19 has been a challenge                       growth, we have to ensure that               growth trajectory over the next   on technology and livelihoods                 employment strategy should be                aid-dependent country because   taking advantage of new trade
             the case of foreign investors. If            Speaking of the industrial   this fiscal year (FY 2021) and                      infrastructural development                  decade. As the country is in the   for better adaptation to climate             focused not only on creating more            we were highly dependent on   benefits even after LDC
             policies change frequently,                  sector, over 80 per cent of our   the immediate past fiscal year                 meets the demand of the                      path of double graduation   change. We also have to urge                        jobs in the public and private               foreign aid. We needed a large   graduation. However, that
             project implementation is                    export income comes from the   (FY2020). As a result, our                        investors. Investment is pivotal             mentioned at the outset of this   the developed countries to                    sector, but also create                      amount of foreign funds to deal   requires fulfilment of stringent
             hampered and sometimes stalled.              readymade garment (RMG)      projected growth rate which                         for continuation of growth                   article (from LDC to developing   enhance support towards                       opportunities for                            with a war-affected economy.   compliances in areas such as
             This leads to wastage of                     sector. The entrepreneurs    was to be 8.2 percent for                           momentum and higher income.                  and from lower middle-income   adaptation. We need technology                   self-employment. This will require           However, over the last five   labour, environmental, and
             resources.                                   deserve a lot of credit for the   FY2020 has declined to 5.24 per                Unfortunately, the private sector            to upper-middle income      for innovations for climate                         enhanced access to finance. The              decades, we have graduated   human rights issues.
 By Fahmida Khatun  Secondly, many sectors have           success of the apparel sector. It   cent according to the                        investment has not been so                   country) maintaining high   tolerant agriculture, and we                                                                     from an aid-dependent country   There is an urgent need for
 Executive Director, Centre for Policy   significantly benefited from these   is also the four million workers   Bangladesh Bureau of      promising. Had it been higher, it            economic performance will be   have to invest in embankments,                   government will need to allocate             to a trade-dependent one.    export diversification. Our trade
 Dialogue (CPD)                                                                                                                                                                         critical.  Diversification of the   shelters, and job creation for              resources for the youth who want
             policies, including agriculture,             who extend their labour for the   Statistics.                                    would have created more                                                                                                      to start their own businesses.               Currently, the share of trade in   is concentrated on only a very
             industry and the services sector.            industry. They have been a   Our exports have bounced back                       employment and enhanced                      economy and reduction on a   the affected people who will                                                                    Bangladesh GDP is around 37   few items, mostly on RMG. It is
 Over the last decade, Bangladesh   And the people of Bangladesh                                                                                                                        narrow export basket are badly   suffer due to sea level rise                   Besides, we need to redesign our
 has seen consistent and stable   have been able to take advantage   major driver of industrial   thanks to increase in RMG                economic growth further. If the              needed for the country. At the   which is the result of global                  education system according to                per cent while the share of   extremely risky to have such a
 growth. Its growth rate has been   of that support. As a result, the   growth, exports and foreign   exports in recent months, a          domestic private sector                      same time, performance on   warming.                                            contemporary market demands.                 foreign aid is about 2 percent of   narrow export basket. Any
 much higher compared to its   agriculture sector has managed   exchange income. Similarly, the   diametric scenario from during           investment does not pick up,                 social indicators such as   In addition to climate change,                      We have to change the mind-set               GDP.                         internal and external sock can
 peers in South Asia. This has   to see positive changes. Our food   government has been   the height of the pandemic                      foreign investors will not be                education and health outcomes   there may be other external                     of having a university degree by             Also, due to the policies which   create a serious crisis. The
 allowed Bangladesh to be   production has been           supporting the sector since the   which saw a lot of cancelled                   encouraged to invest. Modern                 will also be determining factors   shocks which could affect                    everyone. We have to expand                  were taken in the mid-'80s and   government has identified a few
 categorised as a high performing   awe-inspiring, and we have been   emergence of the industry in   orders. It has been reported that     infrastructure, skilled human                for Bangladesh’s            Bangladesh's economy.                               vocational training and                      early 90's which made a shift   thrust sectors which have
 economy. As a result, Bangladesh   able to achieve food sufficiency.   the 80s. Global opportunities   almost 80 -90 percent of the       resource, efficient bureaucracy,             transformation. It will also   COVID-19 is an ongoing                           job-specific training. Now that the          towards market economy and   potential to expand. But the
 has been able to meet up all three   Only about five per cent of our   like Multi fibre arrangement   cancelled orders have been          corruption-free business                     depend on how we address our   challenge. The global economic                   fourth industrial revolution has             trade liberalisation there has   progress towards diversification
 criteria required to be considered   food requirement is imported.   (MFA), which provided duty-free   reinstated.                        environment, policy stability, and           vulnerability due to the impact   meltdown of 2008 is another                   dawned upon us, and the                      been a gradual increase of   is still not encouraging. These
 for graduation from a least   Even during the pandemic, the   export of Bangladeshi RMG also   Similarly, following the                   low political risks are essential to         of climate change. Of course,   example.  So, external factors                  pandemic has forced mass                     trade, mainly through RMG    sectors will have to be
 developed country (LDC) to a   agricultural output has been   helped.                 outbreak of the pandemic and                        attract investment. Currently, we            Bangladesh is a victim since   can play a role in the pace of                   adaptation of technology, there              exports. As an LDC, Bangladesh   supported with substantive
 developing country. It is expected   excellent. Production of rice and   The contribution of the services   worldwide lockdowns,          are ranked poorly in the global              climate change is the result of   Bangladesh’s growth. While we                 will be more demand for high                 has been provided the duty-free   policy measures.
 that Bangladesh will become a   other agricultural commodities   sector has been increasing   thousands of migrant workers                competitiveness index published              the actions by the developed   are optimistic about having a                    skilled human resources.                     quota free access to the
 developing country by 2024. It   has been very good which has   steadily. The sector accounts for   have returned to Bangladesh           by the World Economic Forum. We              countries. Therefore, we have to   higher growth, the domestic                  Technology can be an enhancer as             European and many other
 has also graduated from a   helped the country to pull   over fifty of the Gross Domestic   after losing their jobs. The                  will have to work towards                    adapt to the effects of climate   and unpredictable external                    well as a divider. Unless it is              markets in the world. And
 low-income country to a lower   through during COVID-19. So, the   Product (GDP) of Bangladesh.   migrants still continue to return       overcoming the limitations to tap            changes.  Bangladesh has been   factors on which we have no                     accessible by all, inequality will           Bangladesh could utilise the
 middle-income country.   people behind the three sectors   Semi-skilled and low skilled   as the economic conditions of                   the full potentials of the economy.          successfully doing so. However,   control can slow down the                     increase. And if growth is not               opportunities provided to LDCs,
 Bangladesh now aspires to                                human resources from         their employers have declined.                      These factors will determine our             there has to be more investment   momentum.                                     equitable, it is not sustainable.            whereas numerous African

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