As the US retreats and India’s transition slows, China’s clean-tech rise raises a crucial question: can it lead the next global decarbonisation shift?
In 2025, the global climate equation is being reshaped by geopolitics, national strategy and technology. Within that shifting field, the world’s largest emitters — China, the United States and India — occupy very different positions. With the US under President Trump stepping back from international climate frameworks and India still charting a mixed path of development rather than technology-led decarbonisation, China stands out as arguably the only major economy with the industrial scale and policy alignment to generate climate-tech solutions at a global scale. The question is: Can China not only produce them but also lead a true global transition?
CHINA’S DUAL ROLE
Emissions and Innovation
China remains the world’s top emitter of CO₂, responsible for roughly 31% of global emissions in 2024–25. At the same time, it dominates global clean-tech manufacturing — producing over 80% of the world’s solar panels, and nearly 70% of EV batteries — and its R&D intensity is approaching advanced-economy levels. Its centralised industrial policy allows rapid deployment of renewables and grid modernisation. These facts suggest that China has both the motive and the mechanics to drive climate-tech innovation, not just at home but globally. Yet, the paradox persists. Because its economy still relies heavily on coal and fossil infrastructure, China’s domestic emissions remain high, undermining purely optimistic narratives of a smooth transition.
THE US WITHDRAWAL
A Strategic Context
Into this context enters the US, and under President Trump, the global climate architecture has been significantly weakened. On his first day back in office, Trump directed the US to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, placing the country once again outside the nearly 200-nation pact to limit warming to 1.5°C. The move signalled a retreat from international climate cooperation.
At the COP 30 climate summit, the United States did not send a senior delegation, and Trump told the United Nations General Assembly that climate change was “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.” Meanwhile, analyses show the US is pulling back from development and climate-aid commitments, ranking 28th among advanced economies in the most recent Commitment to Development Index. What this means is that the global leadership vacuum in climate diplomacy is real. With the United States stepping back, other powers are under greater pressure to fill the gap.
Why China May Be the De Facto Climate-Tech Leader
Given the US retreat and India’s slower tech-industrial trajectory, China emerges as the only major emitter with both the scale and orientation to mass-produce decarbonisation technologies at cost levels that force global uptake. In effect, “out-teching” the climate means not just inventing but manufacturing and deploying affordable solutions — something China is uniquely equipped to do.
If solar, wind, green hydrogen, battery storage and grid-modernisation technologies become globally competitive thanks to Chinese production, then the decarbonisation curve could shift irrespective of US leadership.
The Limits of the Narrative
This is not a simple story of victory; China’s own emission profile remains tied to heavy industry and coal. Its clean-tech exports do not guarantee global adoption — geopolitical resistance, trade barriers and supply-chain decoupling pose real obstacles. Moreover, the notion that technology alone can solve climate change overlooks the role of policy, finance, adaptation and equity — all of which require global cooperation beyond industrial capacity.
A Balanced View
So is the take valid? Yes, but with caveats. China is uniquely positioned in 2025 to lead on climate-tech manufacturing and possibly force global cost curves down, but “out-teching” the climate does not equal “solving” the climate. Without global coordination — especially in finance, regulation and adaptation — the technological momentum may still fall short of the transformation required. In the absence of US climate leadership, the burden shifts. China may become the engine of decarbonisation. Whether it becomes the conductor of the global climate system, however, remains uncertain.
