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Global Economy                                                      GLOBAL PENSION PROBLEM:
                                                                                       Dynamics and Solutions




             GLOBAL                                                                                                                        INCREASING LIFE

             PENSION CRISIS                                                                                                                EXPECTANCY
                                                                                                                                           The pension crisis is not related
             It is important to know how the                                                                                               directly to the reduction of population.
             government pension system works to                                                                                            But as of 2021, developed economies,
             understand the current crisis. Currently,                                                                                     and the developing world in total,
             three kinds of economic backup systems                                                                                        have had tremendous success in
             can be classified as pension plans. One                                                                                       maintaining a higher average life
             is individual savings and another is                                                                                          expectancy than previous decades.
             private funds, namely through banks.                                                                                          Take Japan for example. The
             However, the major pension system is                                                                                          retirement age is 60 in Japan. This was
             the one funded by the government.                                                                                             fine in the 1960s and 1980s when the
             Public funded pensions draw from                                                                                              country was facing population growth.
             current workers' salaries to pay                                                                                              But with time, Japan’s highly modern             PROPOSED SOLUTIONS
             pensions to retirees.                                                                                                         living standard has ensured people
             Currently, all the 32 OECD countries,                                                                                         live longer and a reduced fertility rate.        Welfare systems in OECD and many developing countries set
             plus China, India, and other major                                                                                            Thus, Japanese life expectancy has               aside large amounts of cash for public subsidies. In developed
             economies of the world owe a large                                                                                            shot up from 67 in the 1960s to                  countries, issues of medical or education subsidies are the
             portion of the money to retirees and                                                                                          almost 84 in 2015. So naturally, the             cornerstone in politics. Now the looming pension crisis has
             upcoming retirees. Most of these                                                                                              government has to pay pensions for               raised difficult questions like how to afford to pay retirees.
             countries have a strong social security                                                                                       longer and longer terms for each                 For decades, China has maintained a strict one child per
             plan which takes care of citizens’                                                                                            retiree. While the population is also            family policy. However, the situation is reversed now as the
             unemployment, medical care, housing,    As the number                                                                         aging at the same time, numbers of               Chinese government is encouraging young couples to have
             and many other basic facilities through   of retirees is                                                                      new workers are declining. As stated             more kids. Many well-developed economies offer various
             public funds. As the number of retirees                                                                                       earlier, government pension plans are            forms of support, money, and other facilities to encourage
             is growing fast compared to new entries   growing fast                                                                        simply finding it difficult to pay for                                  population growth too. Most of
             in the job market, public funds are     compared to                                                                           such a long duration. The problem is                                    the developed world has a median
             running short of what is needed to pay                                    THE CYCLE OF                                        also acute in other major Western                                       age of more than 40. Encouraging
             to older generations in the future.     new entries in                                                                        nations like Germany, the USA, and                                      the growth of the younger
             Various estimates put the number of the   the job market,                 POPULATION                                          the UK. With the growth of average                                      population is viewed and enforced
             shortfall at 70 trillion USD by 2020. At                                                                                      life expectancy, the median age is                                      as a suitable solution for many of
             this rate, by 2050 pensioners will be   public funds                      GROWTH AND                                          increasing, creating a cycle where                                      them. Another solution is
             owed a whopping 400 trillion USD by     are running                       DECLINE                                             former workers are to be paid for                                       immigration. But the issue of
             the governments. The sum is five times                                                                                        longer durations for 2 decades or                                       immigration itself has major
             larger than the projected world economy   short of what is                A 2017 study by The Lancet                          more.                                                                   socio-political consequences and
             at that time (80 trillion USD). Major   needed to pay                     shows global fertility rate and                                                                                             is a topic of hot debate.
             economies are trying hard to solve the   to older                         the number of live births per                                                                                               In OECD states, less than half of
             puzzle without disturbing the living                                      woman halved from 4.7 to 2.4                        SOCIO-                                                                  people aged between 55 and 64
             standard or average life expectancy.    generations in                    as it is continuing to decline.                     ECONOMIC                                                                are employed. Many choose early
             Economies just cannot sustain paying    the future.                       Stats show the population of a                                                                                              retirement or other forms of
             more and more to a bulging retired                                        certain country starts to fall if                   ISSUES                                                                  exemption given that most of
             population.                                                               the birth rate is below 2.1. As                     The rise in obesity, environmental                                      those countries have strong social
                                                                                       for evidence, most of the                           factors, poverty, urbanization, and all                                 security systems. Countries are
                                                                                       developed countries are
             REASONS                                           experiencing a shrinking population and even mammoth                        of its complexities, has reduced the             also trying to stop the chances of early retirement to fight the
                                                                                                                                                                                            bulging payment. Proposed solutions include an overall
             As of 2015, at least 75% of shortfalls in         populations like China will also shrink in the future. The                  overall interest of younger generations          remodeling of retirement plans, encouraging people to have
             a global pension are due to a lack of             Lancet report predicts the global population to peak by 9.7                 to form a family or give birth.                  longer careers, the use of automation to help older people in
             public funds. The rest of the shortfalls          billion in the 2060s and then drop to 8.8 billion by 2100. The              Housing, medical care, school, and               the workplace, etc.
             belong to personal savings and private            pension crisis rose as a sign of this versatile problem.                    other expenses, flexibility for working          In the case of major developing and newly industrialized
             pension systems. While the public fund            On a local scale, developed or major economies strongly                     mothers, etc. all are somewhat                   countries (India, Brazil, South Africa, Philippines, Indonesia,
             shortfalls are already prevailing, private        depend on immigrants to cover the lessening workforce but,                  contributing to reduced growth rates             etc), a large part of the economy is in informal sectors, the
             funds are also short of cash. Ongoing             the global trend of population decline is uninterrupted as of               across the globe. Delaying to start a            population is largely younger, and social benefit plans are not
             pandemics and economic recession have             2021. Developing nations have been experiencing a declining                 family due to a career or other reasons          well encompassing so governments are not yet burdened to
             impacted every sector of private-public           growth rate as governments there have strong policies to                    is also lessening the chance of                  pay. But with fast-paced developments, pension crises are to
             economic life.                                    reduce population size.                                                     conception.                                      soon loom over these economies too.



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