Year 2030 is essentially an arbitrary year and while drafting the plan, we wanted to have a longer term vision where we choose to debate directly from the mindset of perspective plan.
Born in Chittagong, Dr. Hossain Zillur Rahman is an academic, economist and policy maker from Bangladesh who led the drafting of the poverty reduction strategy of the government in 2005 and was a member of the Independent South Asian Commission on Poverty Alleviation (ISACPA). Dr. Zillur founded Dhaka-based think-tank Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) in 1996 and prior to that worked as a leading researcher at the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies for over twenty years. He was entrusted with the ministries of Commerce and Education as the former advisor of the Caretaker Government.
He was awarded with the Dr. John Meyer Global Citizenship Award by Tufts University, Boston, USA in November, 2009 and Gold Medal Award 2013 by Rotary International Bangladesh in 2013. A graduate from Dhaka University, he received his PhD in Sociology from the Manchester University in 1986 where his research focused on the sociology of colonial rule and emergence of the state in Bangladesh. He studied power, property and institutions. In 2011, Dr. Zillur established the research-based civic platform – Chittagong Research Initiative (CRI). In 2012 he led the establishment of a new institution – the Bangladesh Urban Institute (BURI).
He worked on Board of Advisors of Digital Network, a think tank on Information Technology and sat on the Board of the Bangladesh Bank (Central bank of Bangladesh) from 2005 to 2007. He was the Chairman of Mass-Line Media Centre, a media advocacy organization. He has been a consultant to various international and national organizations.
Dr Hossain zillur Rahman has wide range of publications including Rethinking Rural Poverty: Bangladesh as a Case Study, (with Mahbub Hossain), Local Governance and Community Capacities : Search for New Frontiers, (Hossain Zillur Rahman with S. Aminul Islam), to name a few.
He is the author of very famous strategic paper 30th in 2030 back in 2010 at the behest of Dhaka Chamber. For ICE business Times he revisited the targets fixed by this private sector led strategy paper. Here is the excerpt:
Please tell us about the inception of the strategic paper. What intrigued you to look way ahead of time for a country like Bangladesh that’s been dubbed a ‘bottomless basket’ internationally?
We wanted to draft a strategic vision for our country in 20 years ahead. Year 2030 is essentially an arbitrary year and while drafting the plan, we wanted to have a longer term vision where we choose to debate directly from the mindset of perspective plan. The idea was that Bangladesh has potential to become the 30th largest economy in the world by the year 2030. We concentrated heavily on what needed to be done to achieve that feat. PPRC (Power and Participation Research Center) and Dhaka Chamber jointly did it where I prepared the report but it was at the request of Dhaka Chamber.
We organize this consultation exercise. On the basis of which how to move ahead to 2030 was discussed at 2010. Currently there is lot of discussion about middle income status but actually in this document you would find that we had already talked about this much earlier than others. We tried to make people understand that the middle income status is a very broad range. What we achieved now in 2015 is the lower middle income status. We highlighted that our target is not to reach where we are today but to move towards $5000 , or even $12000 per capita income, for which accelerated growth is extremely important.
What we suggested in the paper was not a mere wishlist like we have here often. People here come up with some sort of to-do list and we considered that to be one of our weaknesses. For this, many of so-called strategic papers actually lack the worth or being called so. Therefore, we did two things one is tried to understand how we have come this far: unpacking the growth dynamics for understanding the story better was crucial. From that understanding we also found the way to accelerate it.
What are the drivers you have identified and what are priorities and risks?
Basically we showed this growth trend by identifying certain growth drivers. Other than RMG (Ready Made Garments) and remittance, we also focused on some of the lesser known drivers like services, Urban Growth, Domestic growth and a few others. Nevertheless, there were cushions and difficulties that might compel us to collapse all on a sudden. By analyzing the growth stories, we tried to identify a strategic agenda that can accelerate the growth further. When we say growth, we always include the word inclusive, since inclusive growth can ensure sustainable growth. Otherwise there will be lot of social tension. We identified seven strategic priorities. We knew it would not be wise on to count on certain drivers of growth for ever. We have to have a new sector and in case of time-tested sectors like RMG, we have to look out for newer markets. In our plea, we highlighted on the importance of skill development, which has become a cry of the moment. We also talked about various potentials of agriculture, many of which are yet to be harnessed. We understood that Bangladesh, from a country of villages was swiftly turning into a country of cities. This is why we shed lights on the importance of an urban strategy. Now everyone talking about connectivity but in 2010 we already had identified connectivity as one of the seven priorities of strategic growth that can lead Bangladesh forward. We talked about climate change and sustainable adaptation to climate change. All these strategic priorities are instrumental to become the 30th largest economy of the world by 2030.
We also indentified the four risks which were very critical like political instability, corruptions, skills shortages and energy deficiencies. Without addressing these challenges, our journey towards a better growth would be sluggish, we mentioned. A discussion on middle income status was yet to gain ground at that time but we mentioned that Bangladesh in any case was going into middle income stage. The choice Bangladesh has was to accelerate its growth, without which it would take many decades for us even to attain a respectable middle income status. Countries which are common to us like South Korea were at the same level of Bangladesh in 1972 but now 25 times higher than Bangladesh in terms of per capita income. So the question today is not about growth but the speed of the growth. The risks that we posted about 2010 remain the very risks in 2015 which were not been addressed sufficiently.
There were some matrixes with growth parentage. After five years some priorities were focused and some are not. There are new drivers and new entrants. What is real picture now?
Real picture is that since the risks are not being addressed adequately, we are in a situation called “Growth Trap”. It’s the trap of six percent growth and we need to break it.
The seven strategic priorities that we defined, some of those have been addressed like there is a focus on infrastructure. The focus on new sectors and new markets, agriculture, regional connectivity but none of these Progresses are adequate. We must understand that the aforementioned risks are interlinked. For example, most of the middle and top management jobs in the RMG sector employ people from outside, showing an excuse that we don’t have enough skilled people to be employed in those posts. As a result, around four billion dollar is remitted out of Bangladesh every year. We are only focusing on remittance coming in but not enough on the amount that is going out.
For us, tapping the potential in agriculture is all about food security. We have things to learn from countries like New Zealand and Denmark who have turned their agriculture to be one of the topmost growth drivers. On urban strategy we have not made much progress. Time wasted while commuting inside Dhaka due to traffic congestion bears testimony to the fact. So you can see which problems are still there to throw a monkey wrench in our growth acceleration.
